Good ideas are testable ideas
An idea can be good in two ways. It can be good in the traditional sense, in that it comports well with reality or generates some useful output. It can also be good in the Antifragile sense - it may or may not turn out to work, but it yields some non-linear asymmetry when a certain function is applied to it. That function is testing.
It is in the testing of the idea that its benefits are identified. Realistically, it’s hard to know beforehand whether or not an idea is “good” in that traditional sense. Therefore, we should think of ideas as being good if they are testable, since that is the process by which their usefulness is identified. It is therefore much more robust to focus on coming up with testable ideas rather than ideas that are “good”, as that would require prediction, which is fragile.
Once we understand that goodness is implied by testability, it becomes obvious we should Maximize your output of testable ideas. By maximizing your output of testable ideas, you increase your odds of finding a good idea. Therefore, measure your productivity in terms of testable idea output, rather than some subjective a priori measure of idea quality. Just do more.
To analogize, Iterative tinkering enhances effective IQ, as does iterative idea generation and testing of those ideas. We don’t need to be “smart” in the sense of having the ability to pull good ideas out of thin air, fully-formed. We increase effective intelligence via iteration. This is the Philosopher’s Stone.
By focusing on testable ideas, we also Bootstrapping confidence. The goal isn’t to identify the solution to the problem in one shot. It’s to come up with enough testable hypotheses that we can have some statistical confidence in eventually finding a solution. If we trust the process and earnestly carry it out, we can reach a point of confidence much sooner in our intellectual journey.
References
Sasha Chapin – Awaken the Writer Within
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